A mere eight weeks in the past that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager berated him for missing a penetrating pass. During that period, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source for Villa's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star swept in his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and having failed to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow a mere three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Genuine Challengers?
This is a particularly tough query to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have stacked up.
As per Opta, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – yet right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy looks like to exchange chances with the opposition before hoping their talisman to bail them out with some precise efforts. It happened at Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, arced precisely inside the post from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling his shots past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger might become the force he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a vital England player.
This winning streak must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
